Systemic risks - Management strategies for pharmaceuticals in drinking water (start)
Recently, increasing attention in public, media and research is attracted by the appearance of pharmaceuticals and their metabolites in the hydrologic cycle. Up to now, specific pharmaceuticals are found only sporadically and at trace levels in drinking water whereas numerous pharmaceutical agents (e.g. antibiotics,hormonalactive substances, cytostatic drugs)are detected in ground waters and surface waters. Regarding the effects of metabolites and agent mixtures in the environment as well as the dynamics in the actor network being responsible for the emission of pharmaceutical substances, the problem is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty and nescience. Thus, the basis of the research work in start is the formulation of a common understanding of the emergence and dynamics of a systemic risk for drinking water supply as a consequence of pharmaceuticals in the water cycle. The project is targeted on the development of integrated strategies for a systemic risk management.
The major tasks of the particular work package are an actor analysis and modelling as well as the development of different future scenarios. In the case under consideration a systemic risk evolves in a system of actors (e.g. patients, physicians, pharmacists, pharmaceutical industry, water suppliers, sewage plant operators etc.) who each have different influence on the emission of pharmaceuticals into the hydrologic cycle. Accordingly, the implementation of risk management approaches can act on different components and therefore addresses different key actors. Having identified the relevant actors, an actor modelling is accomplished in order to shed light on actor-specific interaction processes and dynamics within the risk system. The model represents subjective goals, perceptions as well as options and restrictions for action of the actors involved. The database for the actor modelling is raised by individual questionings of actors by means of guided interviews. The software DANA (Dynamic Actor Network Analysis) is utilised to implement and analyse the actor network.
In addition, four alternative future scenarios are developed. Contrary to conventional scenario techniques an actor based approach of scenario development is pursued, taking into account that specific actor behavior may lead to different future scenarios. With regard to the effects of external conditions, changes in the actors’ behavior are as well considered. Main goal of the development of future scenarios is the identification of effective components for a systemic risk management which are conducive to decrease the emissions of pharmaceutical substances into the hydrologic cycle.
Keywords:Actor analysis and modelling, drinking water, pharmaceuticals, risk dynamics, scenario development, systemic risk, systemic strategy
Participants:Alexandra Titz, Petra Döll
Cooperating institutions:
- Institute for Social-Ecological Research(ISOE)
- Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis(ITAS)
- Johann Wolfgang Goethe University Frankfurt/Main
- University Hospital Freiburg, Applied Environmental Research Section
Duration:10/2005 – 03/2008
Funding: German Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMBF) & Funding Programme Social-Ecological Research
Contact: hydrology@em.uni-frankfurt.de
