HAPPI-DE: Climate and climate impact projections at 1.5 °C as compared to 2 °C global warming in the framework of the HAPPI initiative
Subproject: Climate impact in the water sector
How does the climate and the climate impact look like in a world under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming?
This question has gained relevance in the context of the Paris Agreement, where the Conference Of the Parties (COP) has recommended to hold the global warming level well below 2 °C and trying to limit it below 1.5 °C. The HAPPI-DE project contributes to the scientific basis for answering this question within the framework of the Half a degree Additional warming Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) initiative. The HAPPI initiative suggested an experiment design to assess especially the climate conditions for the two global warming levels 1.5 °C and 2 °C in comparison to present day conditions (Mitchell et al. 2017). This experimental design differs from the common used transient approaches and uses prescribed, a decade-long sea surface temperatures as basis for an initial-ensemble approach. The HAPPI-DE project incorporates the German contributions to HAPPI through global and regional climate and climate impact simulations for the water and agricultural sector. The simulations and analyses are published in line with the time schedule of the IPCC special report on 1.5 °C global warming in order to contribute to the scientific basis of this report. More information about the HAPPI initiative can be found on their webpage.
The working group Hydrology of the Goethe University Frankfurt investigates the impact of global warming at the described levels on global freshwater systems within the HAPPI-DE project. Water impact simulations with four Global Circulations Models (GCMs) and two Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) are conducted to enable the analysis. A multi-model approach with a combination of GCMs and GHMs is used to reduce uncertainty. Several hydrological indicators are calculated, representing different flow regimes, groundwater recharge and also drought indicators. The analysis of the water impact simulations shall lead to two scientific publications, of one is already submitted to meet the deadline of the IPCC special report.
January 2017 - December 2018
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Döll, P., Trautmann, T., Gerten, D., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Saeed, F. Schleussner, C.-F. 2018: Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 13 044038
Trautmann, T., Müller Schmied, H., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Schleussner, C.-F., Saeed, F., Döll, P.: Risks for the global feshwater system at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming - Approach and first results. Impacts World 2017, 11 - 13 October 2017, Potsdam, Germany.
Further information / social media
http://www.happimip.org - Webpage for the HAPPI initiative
http://climateanalytics.org/projects/half-a-degree-additional-warming-prognosis-and-projected-impacts-happi.html - Partner in the HAPPI-DE project
http://www.climate-service-center.de/science/projects/detail/065239/index.php.de - Partner in the HAPPI-DE project
https://www.dkrz.de/projekte-und-partner/projekte/happi - Partner in the HAPPI-DE project